Geopolitical Matrix

What should be India’s plan of action to become a superpower?. Today we are placed in the category of developing nations. We are ambitious however comprehensive policy measures and a strong political will is imperative for India to fulfill our ambition. The approach has to be two front. India has to exponentially increase its economic growth and also focus on building a comprehensive national security policy which includes improving military Capabilities, sound foreign policy and strengthen internal security. This a very time tested and conventional approach.

INSPIRATION FROM THE PAST

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Chanakya

The founder of India’s bureaucratic system defeated the ruler of Magadha. The strongest kingdom in ancient India. Magadha was an extremely fertile area due to passage of river Ganga thus it was high revenue area. In addition to this it was aluminium abundant which was the main component out of which swords, cannons etc were designed. Yet inspite of this kautilya trained a young boy and went on to make that boy the founder of India’s most powerful and successful empire. The foundation of this empire were a comprehensive policy and principles like:Transparent governance, centralised revenue structure, Enhanced military capacity, Structured governance, Maritime policy, Powefull judicial system, Enhanced Intelligence capabilities. These principles for the first time United the large Aryavarta.

Tipu Sultan

At a time when the British controlled India. Tipu sultan was the only ruler who understood the importance of a comprehensive military and foreign policy. He opened embassies to France, Turkey and Iran. But due to Internal dysfunctionality he was killed in Anglo Mysore war.

THE PRESENT SCENARIO

Economic Situation

India is 2.9 trillion dollar economy thus making it the 5th largest economy in the world. India is also considered to be one of the fastest growing economies in the world. All of this signify the fact that we have immense economic potential. India is said to take over USA in terms of purchasing power parity. India is said to be World growth driver of the future thus it is imperative to expand economic activities as economic growth has a direct relationship with a countries weight on the world stage. Yet there are few issues we face. India has a high debt to national GDP approximately 60 percent. India’s current economic growth is 4.8 percent and is said to further slide down due to Covid 19 pandemic. India’s high population has lead to an employment crisis in the country. There is a major liquidity crisis and banks are under heavy burden of NPA’s. All of this puts India in a tough position to fulfill its economic ambitions

National security

India lies in a disturbed region with two of its neighbors being nuclear armed and are enhancing there military and strategic capabilities to threaten India. India presently is a victim of shadow warfare and has lost over 80000 of its citizens including security forces to externally sponsored terror activities. India’s current national security principle is defensive offence . The execution of tactical military strikes across enemy territory has changed the dynamics and called the nuclear bluff. We have enhanced our covert capabilities. This has lead to a greater tactical advantage to India and has reduced threat levels. On the Internal security prism policing is a major cause of concern. Naxal movement has been dispersed. North East is closely moving towards resolution. Crime rate remains a concern specifically crimes against women. The separatist movement has been controlled to an extent however fault lines like Kashmir are still sensitive. In terms of enhancing procurement there has been success. New and cutting edge equipment have been inducted into armed forces however defense budget and pace of procurement remains a concern.

Foreign policy

India has maintained sound foreign relations and has always believed in international cooperation. We have increased are closeness with America at the same time we have leveraged that by importing S-400 from Russia. India maintains cordial relations with Gulf countries. Rapid economic acceleration and large market size has ensured importance of India in the world stage. In a nutshell we have good relationship with the world. Yet we face challenges. In the recent times two of India’s decisions which include stalling of article 370 and citizenship amendment Bill have been very controversial specifically in the Islamic world. The Afghanistan peace process even though is in interest of India yet the hasty peace deal has serious foreign policy implications. On the geopolitical front China has increased its investment in the region and both BRI and string of pearls pose a serious challenge to India. And as always Pakistan is menace for India.

THE PLAN OF ACTION

India has to focus on fulfilling the voids in its progress. Decisive leadership and sound policy making has to be the first priority to achieve development Goals.

ECONOMIC ACCELERATION

India has to harness it’s economic potential. There has to be a massive investment on infrastructure development. If we increase the percentage spending on infrastructure in reference to GDP it will automatically solve the employment conundrum. At the same time it is imperative to focus on skilling the population which has to be the top priority.Policy intervention in NBFC and banking sector can bring them out of liquidity and structural crisis. Financial inclusion and sector specific reforms will have a positive impact.

NATIONAL SECURITY – TACKLING THE FUTURE THREAT

India faces a major threat with the changing dynamics in the region and improving technological capabilities of terrorist organisation. Thus India has to focus on boosting it’s own defence mechanism however at the same time focussing on gauging transmission of money to such organisations. We also have to take action against state supporters to prevent greater technological access to such groups. A graded response and defense mechanism has to be established so as to achieve detterence and to prevent attacks on the homeland. India has to prepare for a hybrid war which means it is imperative to boost our cyber warfare capabilities. Cold start has to be accompanied with a more aggressive contingency policy. Defence manufacturing and export has to be given top priority. A simple example being rather than spending heavily on MMRCA 2.0 we can focus on AMCA and Tejas . Make in India has to be integrated with PPP model. The appointment of CDS is a strategic masterstroke yet field formation and defense procurement related decisions must remain in the hands of CDS and bypass the bureaucracy. On internal security front police reforms are extremely essential. It is important to identify variables and constants. Yet at the same time introducing real time policing and integrating policing with technology will reduce crime. Kashmir has to be tackled comprehensively by creating synchronization between political activity and military operations.

FOREIGN POLICY

Comprehensive economic and strategic cooperation in the saarc region is extremely essential to tackle China. The good thing is that BRI is collapsing and with this pandemic china does not have the economic capability to prevent this collapse. India has to act upon this vacuum. Afghanistan is a serious foreign policy test for India. It is imperative to counter Taliban.Another interesting policy India should work upon is building overseas bases and investing in strategic ports like chabahar and Hambantota. Building up military bases abroad like Fakhror airbase or Agalega will help in surveillance . India has improved it’s relationship with China since Doklam and must work on comprehensively solving the Border dispute.

MISCELLANEOUS

Tackling Pakistan

Pakistan is the biggest immediate threat to India. Realistically we have to tackle it in a systematic manner. Imposing monetary restrictions will create pressure on the Army. At the same time strengthening CI Grid and pounding Pakistan on LoC will further frustrate the rulers of Pakistan. Pakistan has several ongoing insurgencies across the country India being a strong country can provide monetary and diplomatic support to such groups fighting for independence. Providing Asylums and creating interim embassy will further escalate pressure on Pakistan. At the same time it is important to boost covert networks in Afghanistan and Pakistan and invest in strategic armed rebellions.

Nuclear and Covert capability

India has a nuclear doctrine of no first use. The number of warheads are estimated to be 130 . India last conducted nuclear tests in 1998 in POKHRAN. Yet amidst all the restrictions India has a massive plutonium and thorium enrichment capacity. India is a member of MTCR, IAEA also a signatory of Hague code of conduct and partial nuclear proliferation. Yet is imperative to expand the nuclear capability in terms of warhead creation also improving accuracy of Triad. India also has to work on it missile capability in terms of MIRV and Air defense shields. Another important aspect is improving covert capability. The amount of dependence on IAS and IPS cadres is a cause of concern. At the same time it is important to focus on creation of assets.

BACKGROUND

Well it’s all about two countries pulling strings in the game. Yet it all started after the collapse of ottoman empire which largely controlled the middle Eastern peninsula. After it’s collapse the Al-sauds annexed majority of the territory in 1932 they were recognised as Saudi Arabia. Soon large oil reserves were discovered which made House of sauds extremely rich a large portion of money was used on building infrastructure . Sauds forged a geostrategic alliance with US. Another country which was moving up the order was Iran. It too discovered large oil reserve yet found extremely difficult to maintain stability due to continuous foreighn invasions( credited to British ).Both the nation’s never went into direct engagement yet both longed for control of power in the region hence both engaged in proxy confrontation. Sauds wanted stability in the region but were outright autocratic and didn’t accept Democracy. Iran on the other hand was open to people’s choice.

IRANIAN JUGGERNAUT

Understanding Iran is pivotal to understand the conflict in a greater context. Iran witnessed occupation from ottoman empire and then consecutive invasions from British. After the British left Iran was ruled by Mohammed Mossadegh a populist yet he was overthrown and a American controlled puppet leader Reza shah was bought into power his reforms paved way for mordern, secular and progressive Iran however his secret police Sadak launched major crackdown against civilians and his political opponents. Hence what it meant was that both Sauds and Iran were under American influence. Iraq under the leadership of saddam hussain Invaded Iran to annex important religious places in Iran. Seeing Iraq loosing sauds pumped money and provided weapons so as to push Iran back. Analysing the map we can see that Iraq acts as buffer between both the nation’s and this was preffered by both so as to prevent direct confrontation.

KEY DIFFERENCES

There are significant differences between kingdom of Sauds and Iran. Both are autocratic however natives of Saudi Arabia are more loyal and commuted to the Royal family as compared to Iran. There is a sunni shia divide but it does not have a significant role in this rivalry. The key difference is localisation of power in Islamic world(ummah). Saudis consider themselves as the heads of Islamic world due to presence of Mecca. On the other hand Iran consider itself the same due to Iranian spring which was an extremely successful movement that later on established Ayatollah Khomeini. Another key difference is control over opec and monopolising oil trade. Sauds have large oil reserves and Aramco is a major oil supplier . Iran on the other hand has control over hormuz thus controlling the oil market. Today both have established proxies which are actively engaging each other in different part of the region. Like Iran supports Bashar Al Assad. However sauds back sunni rebels.

ISRAEL AMIDST ALL OF THIS

Israel’s journey as a nation has been nothing short of thriller action movie. Jews are one of the most persecuted community in the world. Hence followers of judaism realised it was important to establish a Jewish homeland. After the collapse of ottoman empire Jews immigrated to middle East were they were provided accommodations by the British yet this enraged Arabs. So UN worked out a plan to establish and demarcate land between Israel and Palestine . However it was rejected by extremists on both the sides. In 1967 Arab states formed an alliance and invaded Israel yet Israel turned the tables and won the war. The aftermath being Israel annexed 3 times it’s initial territory including West Bank , Golan Heights. Israel left Golan heights however it created walls encircling it leading to major problems for Hamas with unemployment rising there by 40 percent. In West Banks case Israelis inhabited the area due to cheap housing and to fulfill political objective of the state this has led to creation of fault lines. Israel has been a victim of assymetric war. On the Palestinian side Two intifada have taken place which have taken a major toll on civilian population. Amidst all of this Israel has build itself as a economic and military superpower . ISIS has been unable to penetrate Borders of Israel. Inspite of facing lethal and structured militia like Hamas and PLO It has grown from strength to strength. Israel today stands as a major player in this game what is extremely unique is the fact that Sauds are the only ones in the Islamic world having great relations.

CONCLUSION

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Gulf War is similar to cold War the only difference being proxies have been proactively used across the region. Today more players are trying to climb up the power ladder. With Islamic world in turmoil it will be very interesting to see who gets what in this conflict.

CONCEPT OF ASSYMETRISM

Violence pretty much sums up the history of mankind . It has been an inherent quality of man since the birth of life on this planet. Initially weapons like knifes and fire were discovered to fight wild animals and for food . This was transformed to iron swords, Arrows, cannons etc. Today mankind possess an extremely lethal and sophisticated weaponry from assault rifles to hydrogen bombs. Yet what has been constant is the lust for land. In this lust it has tormented kingdom’s and slaughtered innocents . In this context assymetric war is seen as a modern way to fulfill the strategic objectives of a state. Let us consider a simple illustration. Assume there to be two states. The first state is extremely powerful and greater than the second. Now if both are nemesis. Logically the second state cannot engage in a direct confrontation as it would be suicide to do so understanding the power of the first nation. However mordern solution which was devised to this problem was shadow warfare. What it meant simply was the fact that mercenaries were created through brainwashing normal people on religious and monetary grounds. These mercenaries being normal citizens can cross borders easily and so they could target important assets of the country including military structure or a public place. The impact would be massive as on one end you are creating fear in the minds of people which will force the lawmakers to accede to the political objectives of a group created. On the other hand you are destabilizing a strong country without engaging in a direct confrontation. This option is economically viable. As you only need to invest a very small amount in this process. These group of mercenaries today are termed as terrorist organizations.

A LITTLE BIT OF HISTORY.

Middle East and Asia were the first regions to have this concept tested. One of the first country to do so was Iran. Understanding it’s national security priorities Iran created Qudz force for clandestine extraterrestrial operations. Iran established Hezbollah which achieved driving out America and Israel from Lebanon. It also established major shiate millitant organization thus giving them the geopolitical space today to pull the strings in the region. In 1979 Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. The primary objective was to support PDPA which supported communist ideology. However this invasion resulted in uniting tribal groups which were before fighting each other. The Americans realising an opportunity funded these tribals and provided them mordern weaponry including stingers. The fallout being in 1989 Soviets had to leave Afghanistan. What came out from this conflict was a regressive fundamentalist group named TALIBAN which was formed in South Kandahar. Taliban became an harbinger of political Islam. In Asia Pakistan actively utilised this concept. Being a theocratic Muslim state it easily directed mercenaries to Afghanistan, Kashmir, Iran this policy was further extended to carry lone wolf attacks in metropolitan areas of world.

THE BIGGEST HIGHLIGHT

The biggest fallout of this concept was the creation of ISIS. ISIS still dispersed is a fundamentalist Islamic organization whose objective is to establish Caliphate and encompass Muslims across the world. They are staunch followers of salafism and believe in achieving there political objectives through Jihad. Al-zarqawi a semi- literate Jordanian thug laid the early foundations of this group. Zarqawi fought actively in Afghanistan but after soviets left he came back to Iraq . Soon zarqawi was captured however the major turning point was America invading Iraq. After toppling saddam Hussain out of power it disbanded Iraq army. This lead to thousands of angry sunni soldiers joining zarqawi’s rebel group. Soon after this a group was formed named Islamic State of Iraq. A young scholar Al- Bhagdadi headed it. ISI launched attacks on prisons to free mujahids. Many Muslims across the world were attracted by the religious ideology of ISI and joined the organization. In 2011 Arab Spring happened. Using this as an opportunity it supported the rebel groups in Syria who wanted to throw Bashar-Al-Assad out of power. Through this it expanded itself in Syria. The ISIS gained control of tactically important area including oil fields etc. The ISIS grew stronger and it’s technological capability was the greatest as compared to any other millitant group. It possesed UAV’s, IED’s etc. ISIS was the most systematic organization in the world with a proper power structure in place. Every millitant organization (local) operating had to unify under ISIS and a waliyah was chosen to look over functioning and operations. Many experts have speculated the fact that it’s growth has been majorly possible because of an anonymous power centre actively funding it. ISIS expanded itself across the word it appointed waliyah’s in Libya, Afghanistan (khorasan), Egypt, North Caracas, Philippines, Malaysia, Trinidad etc. It’s blitzcrieg also included carrying out attacks in places as distant as Paris. Thus proving to be a major threat to the world

FIGHTING THIS MENACE.

Any terrorist organization requires two things to sustain 1.Monetary Funding 2.Religious Ideology.Today we are heavily investing on internal security which includes measures like using technology improving covert capability of our security agencies. Strengthening military. But all of this cannot help us in fighting terrorism. The enemy we are fighting is not a trained soldier of a professional army who will take you head on rather you are fighting a shadow war the enemy is similar to normal citizen thus difficult to detect. The first method to fight this war is acting on the monetary channels which are the source of funding. If you can cut funding you would delocalise and destabilize an millitant organization. Another logical approach is investing in the organization. Let us say an organization has a budget of 100 crore. If you could invest more than 100 crore in the group it will automatically work for you. Acting on religious moderation would require greater international co-operation. If we are to fight assymetrism it is essential that world acts on it together unfortunately we haven’t even at this point of time established definition of terrorism allowing distinction of bad and good terrorism. International co-operation is the key

UNDERSTANDING NARRATIVE FABRICATION

Media often considered as a pillar of democracy has limitless power.To elaborate this consider a country named Qatar .Having a population of mere 2.3 million it has the highest per ca-pita income .It has major geopolitical influence and all of this is credited to state owned media enterprise Al-Jazeera. Qatar has influenced conflicts through one sided media coverage and the greater expansion of Al-Jazeera has meant that it has been able to influence the views of spectators across the globe.So it is extremely clear that Media can easily create one sided narratives to propagate state opinions .Now across the globe Qatar’s experiment has been seen as a model and more state funded enterprises have been established and expanded.So where does narrative fabrication come into all of this ?.Let us consider a simple example recently Delhi witnessed communal riots .47 people were killed and these consisted individuals of both the religions.However some western media outlets fabricated the narrative that it was a state sponsored massacre against minorities giving a complete spin to the reality.These narratives and misinformation influenced heads of states and even UN general secretary .Now questions arise why media fabricates narratives .The idea is to propagate states political ideology .Like consider Qatar a theocratic Islamic state eyeing greater position in Ummah so do you really expect them to propagate neutral opinions.Similarly for a state like North Korea narratives are the foundation of the extent of loyalty towards the dictatorship in spite of the massive crimes committed against humanity.

UNDERSTANDING THE HYBRID WAR

Technology has transformed dimensions of battlefield from a conventional war to a hybrid war.Today a small media outlet or an unverified account on a social networking website can fabricate a news which could trigger communal violence. Radicalization can be catalyzed through the use of media .One can very easily gather armed mobs through spreading misinformation.Thus the breadth of hybrid warfare is very large and the threat more extensive.This concept is actively being used by many countries to destabilize there nemesis and create internal security problems. Hitler’s propaganda minister Goebbels once said if you repeat a lie consistently it will become truth.Hitler understood the power of misinformation and his usage of media was the foundation of persecution of the Jewish community .

DEBUNKING INDIAN MEDIA

LET ME CONTROL MEDIA AND I WILL TURN ANY NATION INTO A HERD OF PIGS

JOSEPH GOEBBELS

Neutrality is non existent when we talk about Indian media.Either everything is bright or it is extreme dark.Yet the primary focus is towards a section of media which is simply a threat to national security .They hide under the cover of dissent and freedom of speech to propagate seditious narratives to hinder India’s external image and create fault lines.Dissent is welcome in a democracy but sedition is not.Let us understand the threat through illustrations.

On 5th august Indian government took an historic decision of removing the special status of the state of Jammu and Kashmir and reorganizing it. Post this decision this section of media came out all guns blazing against the security forces.Fake news was transmitted that Security forces broke into the homes of locals and harassed them .The youth was arrested and tortured and women were raped. All of this was to support the idea propagated by Pakistan across the international community that a “genocide” is happening there.The idea was to isolate India and affect our foreign relations. This section of media has been an active supporter of Self determination of Kashmiris. Similarly victimization of a militant is common trend where the security forces are always blamed as aggressors. According to them there is no Islamic radicalization in the valley and they actively support the Hurriyat.

On 27th November a young veterinary doctor was brutally ravaged by some vermin’s. Few days later when the police took them to the same spot for scene reconstruction they attacked the police and so were killed by the police in an encounter.After the incident there was a burst of joy across the nation and the Hyderabad police very patiently made it clear that every protocol was followed yet this section immediately called this as an fake encounter.They were so shameless that they even took an interview of the mother of the prime accused to create sympathy for him.They called public blood thirsty and termed police as worst than rapists terming them serial killers with legal authority.These bastard have high jacked the judiciary and similar attempts were made in the Nirbhaya Case to make the bloody rapists look as normal humans.

CAB PROTESTS

In a democracy every individual has the right to protest .In context of CAB many people have protested peacefully against it.However this section has been active in spreading large scale misinformation against the bill .The Idea that Muslims will be thrown out has been massively propagated in addition to this more provocative content was published which has lead to widespread violence across the country.The idea is to create communal fault lines to felicitate disintegration of the country.

CONCLUSION

We are engaged in a war against misinformation and this is a serious threat to the stability of the world .Thus it is extremely essential to enhance our technological capabilities so as to develop countering mechanisms.In India’s context it is extremely important to act against anti state elements like the pointed section of media .It is very important to regulate freedom of speech .

Are we as a nation failing our Daughters?Yes, unfortunately we are. But what is more astonishing is the fact that even though the truth lies in front of us in the shape of facts and statistics we as a society have become extremely convenient about. The policymakers don’t care about the issue . However all of this raises a larger question that if we can’t provide safety to 50 percent of the population then can we call ourselves an emerging superpower in subcontinent.

ANALYSING THE PROBLEM

The first root cause is the society we live in. We are a conservative society so since childhood norms are created that women are weak and are a burden to the family. In spite of the fact that we have made major transformation from that mindset yet inequality still persists. India ranks 112 in gender equality and 134 in women safety in the world. This clearly defines something is going wrong with society. Whenever a rape happens society shifts blame to the victim. Thus mindset of the society is the first root cause.

The biggest root cause of rapes in India is the judiciary and law enforcement. The law enforcement is untrained and insensitive to deal with such issues. They abuse the victim and are so bloody helpless that recently in UP a rape victim burned herself alive in front of the SSP’s office.In most of the cases police does not respond to SOS calls and even if it does they never act quickly.

However the biggest share of blame lies with the most incompetent institution in this country which is the judiciary. Martin Luther King one said injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. This very well resonates in my country. In 2012 Nirbhaya case happened. Since then it’s been 8 years and even now as I write there hanging has been delayed. What is hilarious is the fact that this case was “Fast tracked”.Official statistics say that in 2018 34000 rapes were “reported”.While many are not even reported in India. Judiciary has made a joke out of the citizens of this country. When it is taking 10-20 years for you to give not execute a punishment it is not surprising when our daughters and sisters ask are we really safe in India.Judiciary has no sympathy and they love harassing the family’s of the victims. Judicial system has provided constitutional flexibility to such vermins.

SOLUTIONS

This might sound vague but the best solution to treat this internal security menace is elimination of such threats. Let us be very clear rape is treason so neither do they deserve human rights or constitutional rights. Judiciary must be barred from tackling rape cases and independent judicial committee must be formed with short, streamlined and specific timelines given to reach a verdict.Death must be the only punishment given to such bastards and if possible make such punishment public. In UAE rapes less than 0.003 percent due to public hangings.Police must be given more freedom. Once we instill fear in the minds then there will be no such incident taking place in the country.

A MESSAGE TO INTELLECTUALS

After the Hyderabad encounter took place many intellectuals called the rejoicing populace blood thirsty. Nobody really took notice of the frustration of the common man from the system behind this rejoicing. The very fact of the matter is that people have no faith in the system. We are fed up of this non sense and so even if it was a fake encounter we support this. Intellectuals will never understand the pain of a mother who lost her daughter because some beasts ravaged her for no reason.My message to intellectuals is that “THERE IS ONLY ONE SOLUTION GUN SOLUTION! “

CONCLUSION

A kingdom can ignore foolish and money minded people in its populace. However it cannot ignore traitors as they move covertly across the kingdom to destroy it’s foundation. If we ignore this threat we are surely headed towards Armageddon.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Persia is the origin of one of the oldest civilisations in the world. A Land home to diverse cultures was historically majoritarianly zorastrian yet Muslim invasions led to rapid Islamicisation of Iran.

Shifting to 20th century. Mohammad Mossadegh who was an elected president was widely popular due to his policies of nationalisation of Iran’s oil reserves. However he was overthrown in a coup having backing of US and UK. An puppet leader took control of Iran going by the name of Reza shah. Mr. Shah worked on improving Iran’s economy by creating infrastructure projects and making a more open and progressive society. However he was more regressive on his political opponents and with Iran being an oil based economy. Due to increase in oil prices there was a major influx of FDI. Which lead to inflation and greater unemployment. Conditions were ripe for a revolution and Ali Khomeini took centre stage. The initiated Islamic Revolution also termed as Iran spring led to Mr. Khomeini forming government. But it is interesting to see Iran’s rise as a power

PROXY INTERVENTION

In 1970s Iraq invaded Iran under the leadership of saddam hussain. Even though war ended in a stale mate as both the nation’s had to pull out of the captured territories on either side. Iranian authorities realised it was imperative to create a comprehensive security policy and a action plan to counter national security threats. This lead to creation of Qudz force which was an elite unit for extraterritoral and clandestine operations. Under this force Iran started proxy intervention across the region. The first experiment was done in Lebanon with creation of Hezbollah which was armed and funded directly by Iran . The experiment was highly successful as Both Americans an Israelis had to pull out of Lebanon. One Individual growing through the military circuit was general Qaseem soleimani.

General soleimani took control of qudz force. He was a brilliant tactician and started establishing and dispersing shiate millitants across the middle East. He was an active supporter of Bashar al Assad and went to the extent of convincing Russia to invade Syria to take control of regions which were then under control of rebels. This was highly successful as Mr soleimani took control of significant parts of southern Aleppo. General Soleimani was instrumental in fight against ISIL. The network of covert shiate millitant groups created are extremely strong and have major influence on the stability of region however Iran’s policy of proxy intervention has prevented penetration of Isis across Iranian border.

ENERGY QUOTIENT AND STRATEGIC LOCATION

Iran is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas . It has the 3rd largest proven oil reserves in the world. It is the 2nd largest oil contributor to OPEC. Thus Iran has build itself as an Energy superpower.Making it difficult for its enemies to isolate it

Another thing that makes Iran strategically important is it’s location.

With the control of strait of hormuz it controls major oil trade thus one of its major defense mechanism during any crisis is to close strait of hormuz. At a time when OPEC and oil market is going through a turbulent phase. Iran’s location adds value to it’s importance. In India’s prism chabahar port project is strategically important with direct access to Afghanistan and chabahar will also act as a monitoring station of gwadar.

Chabahars location in sistan and baluchestan province of Iran is essential for India’s strategic design for Pakistan Balochistan. Thus co-operation with Iran is essential

CONCLUSION

Iran has an active nuclear program and a major proxy network. Thus it will be stupid to ignore Iran. Inspite of the fact that the civilian population of Iran is living in a regressive regime and Iran’s economy being in bad shape it has still managed to carve out itself as a major geopolitical player.

Law and order is the top priority of governments across the world. Many societies have developed mechanism to deal with any major law and order situation this ranges from investing heavily on technology and establishing reforms to strengthen security agencies. Yet in India the internal security apparatus is not capable of tackling any major security crisis. Neither do we have the technology nor the reforms in place for the security agencies to deal with it swiftly and effectively.With political bosses being the sole decision makers. Politicisation of such issues at crucial junctures have lead to loss of lives. Amongst all this bureaucratic muddle if there is one individual that stands out is the National Security Adviser Mr. Ajit Doval. An IAS officer from Kerela cadre Mr. Doval has done remarkable field work. From accession of Sikkim to collecting major intelligence within golden Temple assisting the army to eliminate ultras there is no end to his blitzkrieg.

In 2014 The Modi 1.0 gave him an extremely important post of NSA. It is essential to analyse the crisis which took place and how Mr. Doval was the go to man everytime

The first challenge that he faced was Kashmir. The insurgency which was started in 1989 had become stronger and Islamic radicalization was expanding at unsustainable levels. The fallout being more local youth were picking up arms and foreign millitancy was also rising. In 2016 a young millitant of Hizbul Mujahideen was eliminated by security forces. This led to major unrest in Kashmir and this unrest was simultaneously accompanied by target terrorist attacks and ambush on security forces. On 19th September a group of 5-6 foreign millitants entered Indian Army brigade headquarters in Uri and fired ruthlessly on soldiers. This was one of the biggest attacks in decades.People were outraged yet it was in this time of crisis Mr. Doval crafted a response which will change India’s strategic policy and the soft nation tag forever. On 29th September Indian special forces conducted tactical surgical strikes. After the retaliation Mr. Doval analysed the loopholes of Kashmir policy and initiated policy of CAS. This yielded remarkable results as foreign millitancy has been suppressed to a very high extent and also local millitancy is also loosing it’s grounds. Another Crisis which took place was in pulwama. A Jaish millitant rammed a SUV full of explosives into a CRPF convoy. This lead to 40 CRPF soldiers attaining martyrdom. It was MR. Doval who gave the ingenious idea of an audacious air strikes in balakot and he even handled the aftermath of balakot. It was due to his outreach which lead safe and speedy return of Wing cmdr Abhinandan varthaman.Post abborogation of article 370 it was clear that certain elements would try to create unrest hence keeping that in mind Mr Doval visited Kashmir and monitored the situation himself. This lead to one of the most quietest and peacefull period in Kashmir.

North East

Insurgency in North East was proving to be a major threat to internal security. In 2015 a major ambush took place in chandel district in which around 18 soldiers of Dogra regiment were martyred. In response to this Mr. Doval planned a major special ops which was carried out by special forces in which they ingressed into Myanmar and inflicted huge damage on NSCN(k) cadres. Due to comprehensive development which took place in northeast and strategic military policy. Insurgent groups have been forced to come to dialogue table. With NSCN(k) aggreing to Naga peace accord and other insurgent groups also stepping insurgency is on the verge of extinction in northeast.

DELHI RIOTS

On 25th and 26th February 2020 the worst communal violence in Delhi for decades took place. Till now it has led to 42 people loosing there lives. However the central and the state machinery was completely oblivious of the situation. The delhi police and paramilitary came under the jurisdiction of MHA yet the home minister was unable to take any major decision to contain this. The state governments approach too was asymphethatic. Members from across the political spectrum were involved in inciting violence and encouraging communities to fight. With Home minister failing miserably PM Modi gave the responsibility to his most trusted bureaucrat . Mr Doval stepped up to fill leadership vaccum. According to protocol such situations are handled purely by home secretary and MHA yet he was the first NSA to visit regions where riots took place. He not only withstood people’s rage but also convinced people that they are safe which bought relief as they had lot of faith in him(cuz he is not a politician).

CONCLUSION

Mr Doval is a unique personality and has greater fundamental understanding and experience in tackling crisis situation. Thus even when the complete political and bureaucratic circuit fails. Mr Doval is given the responsibility. He would surely be remembered as the best NSA in India’s history

If we time travel to Afghanistan 50 years ago most of us will be shocked to see the place. A landlocked country home to fiercest warriors and inspiring battles yet 50 years ago Afghanistan was an extremely progressive and a open minded country. However the turning point which transformed a progressive nation to a war torned one was the Soviet Invasion of 1979 which is often termed as Saur revolution. One of the most interesting qualities of the natives of Afghanistan is that mostly they are engaged in internal tribal conflicts however if a foreign invasion takes place all these clans unite as one to fight against the invaders. Soviets were atheists hence the saur revolution was the start of great Islamic Jihad to fight against “kafirs”.The invasion was a major disaster as US backed tribals armed with kalashnikovs and lethal stingers drove them away(credit to Gorbachev). However what was ironical is that 13 years down the line US will be fighting the same insurgents whome it had armed. Post 9/11 American troops invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and within 2 months it threw Taliban out of power. America has always believed that it’s great technological capability can help it win any war yet it has always been proven wrong through a crushing defeat be it Vietnam or Afghanistan. Taliban were masters of Gurreila warfare and utilizing the harsh Rocky terrain and caves of Afghanistan they ambushed American soldiers. However the most lethal weapon of the war was IED which was the direct cause of around 80 % of American casualities. Inspite of the fact that America has defeated Al-Qaeda with elimination of UBL. Yet Talibans image has been propagated as the torchbearer of political Islam and it’s tactics have been astonishing for Islamic world which have been successful in defeating the greatest power in the world. The fallout of America’s longest war have been harsh. 150,000 civilians have lost there lives 2,400 US soldiers have been martyred and it has costed them trillion dollars. Thus in a nutshell America failed to achieve its strategic objectives.All of this pushed the American administration to negotiate with Taliban as it was the only resort available for its troops to pull out and accept another Saigon. However the greater question which one has to ask is if this peace deal will lead to a long term comprehensive solution of the issue and will lead to complete and sustained peace in the region.The answer is a categorical no because it is a hasty effort to pull out troops by 🇺🇸. The peace deal overides the democratically elected Afghanistan government and transfers power to the same fundamentalist “blood thirsty” Individuals who had blood of civilians and American soldiers in there hands and are ultraconservative. Taliban believes in iron Fist policy on civilians thus peace deal completely undermines the initial promise of NATO of rebuilding Afghanistan rather it will push back Afghanistan to pre 9/11 periods. The idea of not involving democratic government clearly means it goes against the will of the people.Another major problem is enabling Pakistan to take a greater role in peace negotiations. One of the initial assumptions of American think tank was that Pakistan would be key to American success in Afghanistan however it was proven otherwise as Pakistan strengthened Islamic jihad by fostering Haqqani network and greater strategic threats to Iran and India. Thus American troops leaving will be an opportunity for Pakistan to utilize power vaccum and direct Mujahideen to faultlines like kashmir. Zalmay khalizad American ambassador to negotiate with taliban will be sighning the first phase of peace agreement on 29th February. However back in Afghanistan hopes of peace are very bleak. Rather they are scared of a more regressive and stronger Taliban taking over the country. I respect optimists but are we looking for real solutions that is the question which has to be asked. Thus to a very larger extent peace deal looks like more of an eyewash rather something that will bring a difference and will transform Afghanistan.

INDIA’S ROLE

India is the most respected country in Afghanistan and has largely focussed on rebuilding Afghanistan by investing heavily on infrastructure and improving quality of life. Afghanistan has been strategically very important to us and is more of an option to contain Pakistan. However we have had a limited role in peace negotiations. Yet one opportunity which we have is that even now it is pretty uncertain if Taliban will not disrupt peace during negotiations and if the deal does not happen before American elections. That will be a major setback to American Pakistan relationship hence we have to capitalise that. It is imperative for India to take a greater role in negotiations as it will make sure that a comprehensive peace agreement is signed.

CONCLUSION

The title is pretty apt as this peace deal is not the answer to the greater question. A stable Afghanistan is a top priority. Hence we need to look for solutions that will maintain stability and peace there and are not mere election theatrics. Trump administration has lot of questions to answer

Kashmir as an issue is one the longest political and strategic issue when we talk about the mordern world.With 72 years and still going one has an opinion that there is no solution in the distant future. Rather Kashmir as an issue has deteriorated and new dimensions have been added to it making it more complex. Pundits also say it is A nuclear flashpoint leveraged between two nations. So the bigger question arises how do we solve it. Before we look inward for solutions it is imperative to understand stakeholders. India being the first is directly dealing with the issue. However when we talk about the second stakeholder it is a greater nexus. Pakistan is the director in this play actively exploiting Islamic universalist identity of Kashmir and establishing proxies to fulfill its strategic objectives in the region. Now as we define the stakeholders the greater question to be asked is what are the problems we are dealing with. Since independence our governments have ignored the local populace and it’s issue leading to creation of feelings of alienation. The political parties in the state have just exploited the issue and reaped benefits out of it for their own personal well being. Due to this we provided space to the deep state in Pakistan to exploit the vulnerability of the people and unfortunately it has been extremely successful in disturbing the region and creating a major security threat for us. So now i move on to the bigger picture how do we deal with it in a realistic manner. See India has taken a unilateral way of solving this issue which is logical in nature as Pakistan will only create obstacles for peace in the valley. The first step which needs to be taken is to counter radicalization in the valley. Kashmir has the greatest net penetration in the whole country. With more mosques mashrooming in the valley the number of youth picking up arms is also on the rise so we need to focus on counter radicalization through religious moderation. Second the government should initiate political activity by encouraging more political fronts to establish themselves and take part in election this has to go hand in hand with government initiating comprehensive dialogue with the people through ministerial delegations and interlocutors. On the security front the government and the security forces should strengthen CIG and use cutting edge tech for surveillance. The security establishment should also act against miscreants and separatists to bust networks. We also have to work on our cyber warfare capabilities to counter misinformation a major tool in Kashmir for arson. I will say this that Kashmir used to be a political issue however it was exploited so as to attain benefits from the blood of civilians and security forces. However we have taken a step in right direction and a vibrant democracy like ours has the willpower and strategic outlook to solve this complex problem. Jai Hind

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