DOES THE CHINESE AGRESSION ACTUALLY HAVE SUBSTANCE OR IS IT JUST PSYCHOLOGICAL TACTICS?
China is facing major diplomatic isolation. For the first time the world is coming together to make China accountable for its blatant misadventures and an expansionist mindset. At the same time internally it is facing a stability crisis . The CCP fears that pro democratic and Anti establishment voices even though stiffled by restrictions and surveillance are becoming more stronger. And thus CCP has picked the best move to divert attention both internally and internationally by engaging in aggressive standoff
UNDERSTANDING POINTS OF CONFRONTATION
1)LAC BUT MORE PROACTIVELY EASTERN LADAKH
India and China share a border of around 3500 km. Yet fascinatingly unlike the LOC or the International Border the LAC is not demarcated which critically means that there is no theoretical decided border between India and China. This problem can be primarily credited to different perceptions of boundary lines on both the sides. To make it more clear both the sides have perceptions about the border line inside 2-3 Km of currently withholding territories on both the sides at certain areas. At the same time both the sides have territorial claims like legally Aksai Chin the part currently under occupation of China is a part of Acceded territory of Jammu and Kashmir to India. Whereas the Chinese claim ( without any legal declaration or an signed agreement) that Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim,Ladakh are Chinese territories.China taking advantage of this border conundrum implements it’s expansionist agenda by ingressing deep into Indian territories constantly. China has implemented a similar tactical move by amassing troops and BMV’s in the Galwan peninsula of Eastern Ladakh according to confirm reports and OSINT around 5000 troops have moved between finger 4 and finger 5 which is a disputed region. Apart from this troop deployment China has installed heavy machinery including Artillery batteries, Tanks. Simultaneously it has also increased sorties of J-11’s and Chinese Helicopter’s. What makes this interesting is China has opened 3 new points of ingression which were mutually undisputed.
1.1) WHY THIS AGGRESSION AND CALIBRATION OF MILLITARY RESPONSE?
India has been very weak in infrastructure development and we have never focussed on building strategic assets. However in the past 6 years there has been a major impetus given towards infrastructure development in border areas and more specifically Northeast. In Ladakh India has been ramping up construction of roads and bridges to move strategic assets and for faster deployment of troops along the Line of actual control. The flag bearer of this has been the BRO. It has set an extremely ambitious target of building 66 strategic Roads along LAC by 2022.However what has caused this showdown is a road constructed Dyob-Shyok- Daulat Begh Oldi link which connects India’ s strategic air asset of Daulat Begh Oldi. This was one of the primary reason which enraged Chinese establishment. Another factor to add in is the establishment of Ladakh as a Union Territory which was one of the primary reason why China pushed in Pakistani agenda of involving members of UNSC in discussing Kashmir. Yet India’s nationalistic approach and growing financial prowess which is spot of attraction for companies moving out of China has further triggered CCP.
MILITARY MECHANISM
It is very important to understand the fact that this ingression was not planned or implemented by local commanders. It for sure had the blessings of Beijing. India has been steadily analysing the situation and likewise has gone for mirror deployment which is it has increased the number of troops along disputed areas to match the concentration of Chinese troops and simultaneously it has rapidly gone for uniformed deployment of heavy machinery including tanks and heavy artillery. The IAF has increased surveillance along the areas to monitor any Chinese infiltration. What all of this signifies is the fact that both the sides are preparing for a long skirmish. But there is another symbolic part of this event. The Chinese deployment has relatively low substance but it has more to do with psychologically defeating the enemy to push it backwards. Ladakh is not a freebie even China realises it. Post Kargil war the domain of Northern Command was expanded with establishment of 14 corps in Leh apart from 15 corps in Nagrota. India not only has expanded its troop concentration in the region but the deployment of Mechanized infantry, Tank regiments and Aerial surveillance assets has strengthened it’s defences. The Introduction of IBG’s has also given an upper hand to India another interesting thing that we have to understand is the fact that China faces relative disadvantage in terms of COT. China comprehends the fact that it is not the 1962 India which it can take advantage of. Hence the major part of the deployment has to deal with psycho ops to push India back and gain more territory to be at a stronger position at the negotiation table.Logically its a game of resolve and who back downs first. Wether there is something more nefarious to this the answer only lies in the future.
2) HONG KONG, TAIWAN AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
Before 1990’s Hong Kong was a British territory however as it left the territory it signed an agreement with China of transferring it’s control to the CCP yet this was conditional as the British government placed a clause within the agreement that the full inclusion of Hong Kong will happen with China in 2047 till then China has to consider it as an autonomous territory with full rights which included right to expression and a democratically elected government. China willfully agreed to it has Hong Kong was extremely mordern and a business centre contributing to around 27 percent of China’s GDP back in the 90’s.However China has digressed from its promises and is forcibly dissolving the autonomy of Hong Kong before 2047 as today it contributes mere 3 percent of GDP. In addition to this the CCP has a direct control of Hong Kong government and executing legislations primary reason being the majority in the the parliament comprises of Chinese benefited traders, buisnessman etc. China has pushed in highly controversial legislation notable amongst them is a legislation making it compulsory to stand for Chinese National Anthem. Another controversial legislation is extradition laws to Taiwan . However thpe most blatant violation of the autonomy of Hong Kong are the newly drafted National security Laws which curb the fundamental rights which were previously guaranteed and give legal impunity to target protesters as terrorist or separatist eliments
China also has made claims over the territory of Taiwan which historically was a part of China yet today it is an sovereign and a independent Island nation. Taiwan has its own millitary and is actively supported by US. China is upping its ante over the territory as a member of the top brass of Army recently called for invasion of Taiwan by sea further escalating the conflict. Apart from this China is also rapidly involved in territorial blitzkrieg in the South China Sea. China has deployed missiles and has created airstrips in the disputed areas.
MANEAUVERING INDIA TO A DIFFERENT APPROACH
WHY ELEPHANT HAS TO BE MORE PROACTIVE IN LOOKING AT ITS OWN INTERESTS
Geopolitics is pretty much like a test match there are moments of unpredictability yet a sound foreign policy is the one which can steer out of crisis and expand its influence base. China has its hostility towards India yet its very fascinating that both the nation’s have a trade volume of more than 100 billion dollars with balance of payment inclined towards China. And at the same time both the nations have active diplomatic engagement at the highest level with both the leaders meeting very recently in October 2019 in Chennai.There is no shame in accepting the fact China has greater capability both economically and technologically. But we cannot let this reality become a factor allowing China to dictate terms and bully us. We have to stand up for our priorities. Bilaterally the first priority has to be once it for all solving the boundary issue. This will prevent perceptional transgressions by the Chinese. Simultaneously India has to reduce the trade deficit with China which currently stands at around 100 billion dollars. China has extensively increased its influence in India’s neighbors. It is heavily investing in the SAARC region and is extending line of credit across the region. China BRI is an ambitious project which theoretically is an attempt by CCP to improve connectivity in the region. Yet it primary fulfills Chinas strategic objectives consider this China established CPEC in Pakistan as a part of BRI which according to Pakistan will improve its infrastructure and make it an epicentre of economic activity. However it a well crafted debt trap. To further explain consider China pumps in 20 million to build in roads, bridges and hydropower resources in a particular region of Pakistan. Now the labor is primarily imported from China thus saves labor cost thus no employment for locals. Now the money pumped up is credit not investment which means Pakistan has to return 20 million with a defined rate of interest to China. China is influencing governments across the region take Nepal for example. Nepal has been a close ally of India for a long time yet the present communist government in Nepal published political maps showing Indian territories of lipulekh, limpiyadhura as there part. Likewise China is building dams and roads in POK and providing strategic equipment and technology to Pakistan. In a recent encounter which took place in kashmir China based pistols were recovered which explains the gravity of the situation. China is also key stakeholder in Afghan peace process and is actively supporting Taliban a Pakistani ally. To establish footprint in this region. China’s hostility towards India can be also understood by the fact that it has been actively blocking India’s citizenship in Nuclear’s supplier Group and permanent membership of UNSC. Through all of this we can analyse the fact that China is actively showing it’s hostility towards India. All of this is enough for us to change our scared approach towards China. India can actively utilize the current situation by remaining non alligned. With the greater chorus growing against China India can explore its options in the South China Sea. Likewise India can extend its informal support to territories including Hong Kong, Tibet, Taiwan. US has imposed heavy restrictions on China including even going to the extent of recognizing Tibet as a free country. We can utilize this opportunity. It is imperative to symbolise that India isn’t scared of China and will go Tit for Tat . Good diplomatic relations are mutually beneficial for both India and China.However one cannot be two faced while negotiating on the dialogue table.
VICTORIOUS WARRIORS WIN FIRST AND THEN GO TO WAR, WHILE DEFEATED WARRIORS GO TO WAR FIRST AND THEN SEEK TO WIN
-Sun Tzu
Geopolitical Matrix 