PUSHING THE VALLEY TO THE BRINK
Humanity is engaged in a deadly battle against an invisible enemy.The Enemy so lethal that it has literally pushed the boundaries and has made us all forget are petty fights.The whole world today is in a state of Lock down and with healthcare systems collapsing the priorities of the policymakers have changed drastically.The United Nations chief Antinio Guitteras has urged countries across the world to establish ceasefire in all the fault lines across the world and also to unite against this global pandemic.Yet even in such grim times India is fighting an exceptional enemy which since independence has been a constant source of pain.The Pakistani Deep State is utilizing these extraordinary circumstances to push the territory of Kashmir on the edge.Since 5th August the Union Territory of Kashmir has witnessed one of the most peaceful times in its history.This can be largely credited to strict restrictions put in place by the authorities with the real game changer being taking down Internet and broadband services in the valley .The step had largely resulted in a major communications breakdown across different militant cadres and there handlers sitting across the border.These steps had a massive impact on recruitment as local recruitment level came down by only 5 youth joining militancy per month whereas before 5th August it was more than 14.This largely replicated the inability of Pakistan to create a crisis in Kashmir.Yet today we face a different situation and likely more grievous one.
SYMBOLISM FROM HANDWARA
It is a conventional estimate that from the start of April infiltration increases in Kashmir largely being credited to the melting of snow along the line of control making it easier for militants to ingress in Kashmir. This puts a greater load on the Anti Infiltration grid active along the line of control . As I clearly mentioned that due to the extraordinary situation the country is involved in the threat level is far from what it was conventionally.Pakistan is increasing the intensity of infiltration and among it what is a greater cause of concern that Jaish cadres specially being trained in Afghanistan are being diverted to Kashmir .Within the hinterland the situation is rapidly escalating . Pakistan has changed its tactics in the valley. It has propped up two new militant outfits The Resistance Front and JKGF(Jammu Kashmir Ghaznawi Front).Both are under the supervision of LET. Intelligence officials have explained the rational behind this move stating that Pakistan is under strict FATF restrictions on terror funding.Hence these two outfits will give it an cover as these will be interpreted as an indigenous resistance fronts. The timing is also perfect as India revoked the autonomy of the region thus providing an opportunity for indigenous push back to this move coinciding with Pakistani global propaganda. Another interesting aspect of this move is an attempt to internationalize the issue. The names of these two groups do away with the conventional arabic roots which have largely represented the Islamic fundamentalist element of Kashmir . The Islamic Universalism in Kashmir has been the brainchild of Pakistan and thus it has been largely criticized across the diplomatic circles.These names would create a perception that the issue has nothing to do with religion rather it is a radical freedom struggle. TRF is trying to establish itself in Kashmir the recent attack in Handwara cements the fact that its operating style is ambush.Two militants were eliminated in Handwara among it the most significant elimination was of a Pakistani militant Haider Ali the right hand of Zakir Musa. The Martyrdom of Colonel Ashutosh clearly signifies that attempts are being made to carry out terror attacks regularly across Kashmir to specifically target security forces who are largely involved in tackling COVID-19 in hinterland.A greater question which lies ahead is whether it is the correct time to ease restrictions in the valley.
RIYAZ NAIKOO .WHAT WE LEARNED AND WHAT LIES AHEAD?
On 8th may 2020 the most notorious and maybe the last commander of Hizbul Mujahideen active in Kashmir for the past 8 years was eliminated in Beighpora in a joint operation of Indian Army,CRPF and JKP. He went by the name of Riyaz Naikoo. He was on the run for quite sometime. Riyaz was involved in drug peddaling across the country and the money generated from the same served as a major source of funding for Hizbul to carry out attacks in Kashmir. Riyaz was also involved in killings of non Kashmiri labor as well as abductions of various police personnel . At the same time what made him extremely dangerous was the fact that he was very active on social media and had lured the youth to join militancy. He had previously escaped encounter sites due to active support of Local population. After he was eliminated there was heavy stone pelting on the security forces near the encounter site .Yet the situation was actively defused by the authorities. Immediately internet restrictions were put in place across Kashmir thus preventing mobilization of large crowds. Another decision which was taken by the MHA was not handing over the bodies of eliminated militants. The rational behind it was that crowds which accumulate in funeral of such militants act as a hot spot of catalyzing militancy in valley.Yet another dangerous and unfortunate aspect was glorifying of the militant as a Mathematics teacher to humanise him .This was largely done by Indian media many even went to the extent of terming him a victim of the so called ‘humilation’ done by army. Everytime a militant is eliminated several media houses jump to give you the humane background of the militant so as to create a feeling of sympathy. These are blatant attempts to create national security threats for the country. Romanticizing militants has been one of the major reason why stringent security measures were put in place to prevent a situation like 2016.Elimination of Riyaz is a major blow to the structure of Hizbul in Kashmir which was not only facing a cash crunch but also a structural crisis since the internal disruptions in 2016. The Indian Army has been successfully targeting A++ level militants which has caused major absence in terrorist leadership.Now a major challenge is to prevent local recruitment in the name of Naikoo post his death and to prevent what had happened after the death of Burhan Wani.
ACCELERATING TO ALL OUT OFFENCE
Elimination of HM commander is a big win for our forces yet it is essential to understand that the solution cannot be derived from just elimination of terrorists. The root cause of this problem exists in Pakistan.Our response has to be two front. The government must focus on de -radicalization in Kashmir two prevent youth taking up arms.This can be done by introducing religious moderation but it has to happen on a very large scale. Another solution lies in hammering of Pakistan both internally and along the LOC. See until unless the deep state will not feel the pain nothing would change.These militants are like cannon fodder for the Pakistan Army.So the real enemy is basically the ones pulling all the strings .We can covertly support the internal insurgencies in Pakistan and make it a national policy to support them.Once we transform our capacity optimization from responding to attacks to pro actively destroying origin of the threats.Pakistan would automatically find it expensive to carry out such covert ops.You can only retaliate to death by thousand cuts theory by giving thousand and one cuts to the enemy.Once we do it the groups on hinterland are to entangled in internal disputes that they will breakdown.
“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”
-San Tzu
Geopolitical Matrix 