If we time travel to Afghanistan 50 years ago most of us will be shocked to see the place. A landlocked country home to fiercest warriors and inspiring battles yet 50 years ago Afghanistan was an extremely progressive and a open minded country. However the turning point which transformed a progressive nation to a war torned one was the Soviet Invasion of 1979 which is often termed as Saur revolution. One of the most interesting qualities of the natives of Afghanistan is that mostly they are engaged in internal tribal conflicts however if a foreign invasion takes place all these clans unite as one to fight against the invaders. Soviets were atheists hence the saur revolution was the start of great Islamic Jihad to fight against “kafirs”.The invasion was a major disaster as US backed tribals armed with kalashnikovs and lethal stingers drove them away(credit to Gorbachev). However what was ironical is that 13 years down the line US will be fighting the same insurgents whome it had armed. Post 9/11 American troops invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and within 2 months it threw Taliban out of power. America has always believed that it’s great technological capability can help it win any war yet it has always been proven wrong through a crushing defeat be it Vietnam or Afghanistan. Taliban were masters of Gurreila warfare and utilizing the harsh Rocky terrain and caves of Afghanistan they ambushed American soldiers. However the most lethal weapon of the war was IED which was the direct cause of around 80 % of American casualities. Inspite of the fact that America has defeated Al-Qaeda with elimination of UBL. Yet Talibans image has been propagated as the torchbearer of political Islam and it’s tactics have been astonishing for Islamic world which have been successful in defeating the greatest power in the world. The fallout of America’s longest war have been harsh. 150,000 civilians have lost there lives 2,400 US soldiers have been martyred and it has costed them trillion dollars. Thus in a nutshell America failed to achieve its strategic objectives.All of this pushed the American administration to negotiate with Taliban as it was the only resort available for its troops to pull out and accept another Saigon. However the greater question which one has to ask is if this peace deal will lead to a long term comprehensive solution of the issue and will lead to complete and sustained peace in the region.The answer is a categorical no because it is a hasty effort to pull out troops by 🇺🇸. The peace deal overides the democratically elected Afghanistan government and transfers power to the same fundamentalist “blood thirsty” Individuals who had blood of civilians and American soldiers in there hands and are ultraconservative. Taliban believes in iron Fist policy on civilians thus peace deal completely undermines the initial promise of NATO of rebuilding Afghanistan rather it will push back Afghanistan to pre 9/11 periods. The idea of not involving democratic government clearly means it goes against the will of the people.Another major problem is enabling Pakistan to take a greater role in peace negotiations. One of the initial assumptions of American think tank was that Pakistan would be key to American success in Afghanistan however it was proven otherwise as Pakistan strengthened Islamic jihad by fostering Haqqani network and greater strategic threats to Iran and India. Thus American troops leaving will be an opportunity for Pakistan to utilize power vaccum and direct Mujahideen to faultlines like kashmir. Zalmay khalizad American ambassador to negotiate with taliban will be sighning the first phase of peace agreement on 29th February. However back in Afghanistan hopes of peace are very bleak. Rather they are scared of a more regressive and stronger Taliban taking over the country. I respect optimists but are we looking for real solutions that is the question which has to be asked. Thus to a very larger extent peace deal looks like more of an eyewash rather something that will bring a difference and will transform Afghanistan.
INDIA’S ROLE
India is the most respected country in Afghanistan and has largely focussed on rebuilding Afghanistan by investing heavily on infrastructure and improving quality of life. Afghanistan has been strategically very important to us and is more of an option to contain Pakistan. However we have had a limited role in peace negotiations. Yet one opportunity which we have is that even now it is pretty uncertain if Taliban will not disrupt peace during negotiations and if the deal does not happen before American elections. That will be a major setback to American Pakistan relationship hence we have to capitalise that. It is imperative for India to take a greater role in negotiations as it will make sure that a comprehensive peace agreement is signed.
CONCLUSION
The title is pretty apt as this peace deal is not the answer to the greater question. A stable Afghanistan is a top priority. Hence we need to look for solutions that will maintain stability and peace there and are not mere election theatrics. Trump administration has lot of questions to answer
Geopolitical Matrix 